Title: [2026–2027 Guide] February 189 Visa Invitation Round: When Will It Happen & What Are the Expected Points?

Meta Description: Analysis of the February 2026 189 visa invitation round. Get expert predictions on invitation dates, points for teaching & nursing, and strategies to boost your EOI with the latest data.

Slug: february-189-visa-invitation-round-predictions-2026

[2026–2027 Guide] February 189 Visa Invitation Round: When Will It Happen & What Are the Expected Points?

TL;DR: The next Skilled Independent (subclass 189) visa invitation round is expected in February 2026, continuing a quarterly pattern. Based on the latest EOI data, competition remains fierce, with points for key occupations like Early Childhood Education likely at 85+, Nursing at 80+, and Secondary Teaching at 80+. Proactive state nomination planning is crucial as 189 quotas tighten.

The Australian skilled migration landscape is a dynamic puzzle, and the anticipated quarterly invitation round for the subclass 189 visa is a critical piece. With the latest Expression of Interest (EOI) data released in late January 2026, applicants are keenly awaiting the next round, expected this February. This analysis, drawing on expert commentary from registered migration agents and official data trends, provides a clear forecast of what to expect and actionable steps to improve your chances.

When Will the February 189 Visa Invitation Round Be Held?

The next 189 invitation round is highly likely to occur in February 2026. Historically, the Department of Home Affairs has maintained a roughly quarterly schedule for the Skilled Independent visa program. The previous major rounds were in August and November 2024, and February 2025. This established pattern strongly suggests an invitation round in February 2026 is imminent. While the exact date is never pre-announced, rounds typically happen mid-to-late in the month. Applicants should monitor their ImmiAccount and email closely during this period.

The timing is particularly significant this year. The 2025-26 program year quotas were confirmed later than usual, which has compressed the planning cycle for both the federal and state governments. As noted by migration experts, this delay means state nomination programs are becoming the dominant pathway in the second half of the financial year. The February 189 round, therefore, represents one of the final major federal opportunities before year-end, increasing its importance for applicants solely reliant on this stream.

Pro Tip: Don’t just wait. Use tools like NovenAI’s Visa Success Predictor to model your chances across multiple visa subclasses (189, 190, 491) based on your current profile. This gives you a strategic overview while you await the invitation.

Analysis of 189 Visa Quota and EOI Backlog for Key Occupations

The total 189 quota for the 2025-26 program year is 16,900 places. Analysis of the first half of the year reveals that nearly 17,000 invitations were issued across the August and November 2024 rounds. However, the acceptance rate for the August round was under 70%, and the rate for the substantial November round—which saw 15,000 invitations issued—remains uncertain. This historical context is vital; as reported by Work Visa Lawyers, the November 2024 round was exceptionally large, but not all invites convert to applications.

Given the high volume of invitations already issued and the finite quota, expert consensus is that the number of invitations in the second half of the financial year (Feb-June 2026) will be lower than the first half. This directly impacts the competitiveness of the upcoming round.

Let’s break down the critical EOI backlog for the “Big Four” in-demand professions: Early Childhood Teachers, Nurses, Social Workers, and Secondary School Teachers.

Early Childhood Education (ECE)

• Backlog: Over 1,000 EOIs at 85 points and above.
• Monthly Growth: The 85+ point cohort is growing by over 200 per month, with the 90-point segment also seeing significant increases.
• Prediction: An 85-point invitation is the absolute baseline, with 90 points being far more competitive for the February round. The pathway is extremely congested.

Nursing

• Backlog: The largest backlog, with over 4,000 EOIs at 75 points and above.
• Context: While the backlog is immense, Nursing typically receives the highest number of invitations per round (over 2,000 in the last round).
• Prediction: The round may only partially clear the 75-point cohort. An 80-point score is considered the safe benchmark for a high chance of invitation.

Social Work

• Backlog: The healthiest among the group, with around 500 EOIs at 75+ points.
• Trend: Notably, very high-scoring applicants (95-100 points) are now appearing, indicating rising competition at the top.
• Prediction: Social Workers with 75 points have a realistic chance based on previous round patterns.

Secondary School Teaching

• Backlog: Relatively healthy, but high-score competition is intensifying. While the November round cleared all 80+ point applicants, a new backlog of nearly 300 at 80+ points has already formed.
• Prediction: The next round’s minimum score is likely to be 80 points or higher. The possibility for 75-point invites depends entirely on the total number of invitations issued for the occupation.

Key Takeaway: The data shows a clear trend of score inflation and growing backlogs in high-demand sectors. Relying solely on the 189 visa is becoming a high-stakes gamble for many.

Predicted 189 Visa Points for February 2026 Invitation Round

Invitation points will remain high, with minimal downward movement expected from the previous round. The combination of reduced quota availability in H2 2026 and substantial EOI backlogs means the points threshold will not see a “surprise” drop. The goal of the round, as per industry analysis, will be to “rescue some applicants” within the constraints, not to broadly lower the bar.

Here is a consolidated prediction for minimum invitation scores:

Your Action Plan: Before the round, use the NovenAI EOI Points Calculator to audit your points claim meticulously. Ensure every point—from English proficiency (PTE/IELTS), skilled employment, and community language—is correctly calculated and substantiated. An accurate points total is your foundation.

Strategic Advice: What to Do If Your 189 Points Are Too Low

If your points are below the predicted thresholds, immediate action on state nomination pathways is essential. The expert advice is unequivocal: “If scoring points seems hopeless or too difficult, you must look more at state policies… make up your mind to move if needed, seize the opportunity, opportunity waits for no one!”

1. Prioritise State Nomination (190/491 Visas): With the federal 189 quota tightening, state and territory governments hold the key for the remainder of the program year. For example, the Australian Capital Territory’s Skilled Migration Program for 2025-26 opened on February 1, 2026, highlighting active state-level opportunities.
2. Be Mobile: Consider opportunities in states with smaller populations or specific skill shortages. Success stories, like applicants moving to Western Australia (WA) for job opportunities and securing a 190 visa, are becoming common strategic moves.
3. Boost Your Score Aggressively:
   • English Language: Aim for Superior (20 points) or Proficient (10 points) levels. Our English Level Guide can help you understand the requirements and plan your test strategy.
   • Professional Year: Complete a Professional Year in Accounting, IT, or Engineering if eligible (5 points).
   • NAATI Credentialed Community Language: Pass the test for 5 additional points.
4. Leverage Intelligent Tools: Manually tracking multiple state criteria and policy shifts is overwhelming. A service like NovenAI provides 24/7 AI mentorship, drawing from an 18GB+ knowledge base of Home Affairs and ANZSCO data to offer personalised pathway advice, instant policy alerts, and strategy adjustments far faster than traditional consultation cycles.

The February 189 invitation round is a pivotal event, but it is just one part of a broader migration strategy. The data indicates a clear shift towards state-managed migration. By accurately assessing your points, actively researching all pathways, and being prepared to adapt your plans—including relocation—you significantly increase your odds of success.

Don’t leave your Australian dream to chance. Develop a comprehensive, multi-pathway strategy today.

Ready to build your personalised migration plan? Start your journey with NovenAI’s free tools and AI mentor{target=“_blank”} to navigate the complex points system and state requirements with confidence.