[2025-2026 Guide] Will Four States Succeed in Getting More Skilled Migration Quotas?

The coordinated push by Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia for increased state nomination quotas faces strong federal resistance, making significant increases unlikely despite unprecedented state-level unity. While the four major states (excluding NSW) representing over 57% of last year’s allocations have united in their demands, the federal government’s firm stance prioritizing national interest over state requests suggests only marginal improvements at best.

The unprecedented coalition of state leaders marks a significant shift from previous years where states typically negotiated individually. Victoria and Western Australia have deployed their Premiers to lead the charge, while South Australia and Queensland have sent ministers and official spokespersons respectively. This high-level coordination demonstrates the severity of quota reductions affecting these key migration destinations.

Why Four Major States Are Fighting Together

The unified front of Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia reflects shared desperation following substantial quota reductions that threaten their economic development plans. These four states collectively received over 57% of total state nomination allocations last program year, making their coordinated pressure campaign particularly significant in migration policy circles.

The current battle differs fundamentally from the 2023-2024 quota negotiations in several key aspects:

• Leadership level: Premiers leading the charge rather than immigration ministers
• Coordination timing: Simultaneous public pressure rather than staggered requests
• Media strategy: Coordinated media releases across multiple states
• Economic arguments: Focus on specific skill shortages in each jurisdiction

Kirk Yan, Melbourne-based Registered Migration Agent and editor of Australian Immigration Weekly, notes: “This time the four major states excluding NSW are all actively fighting together, which is quite different from the 2023-2024 program year. This also indirectly shows that all four states have had their quotas cut.”

Federal Government’s Firm Stance on Quota Allocations

Assistant Minister Mr. Gorman’s response to Western Australia’s public request indicates the federal government maintains a firm position, emphasizing national interest over individual state demands. The government’s approach considers multiple factors beyond state requests, including national infrastructure capacity, housing availability, and overall migration strategy alignment with economic objectives.

The federal position appears grounded in several practical considerations:

• Western Australia’s current allocation: Already receiving approximately 17% of total nominations (3,400/20,350)
• Historical comparisons: WA received 19% in 2024-2025 (5,000/26,260)
• Population distribution: Balancing growth across all states and territories
• Infrastructure planning: Aligning migration with capacity development timelines

The government’s stance suggests they believe Western Australia should be satisfied with its current allocation given historical distributions and the state’s relative share compared to others.

Realistic Expectations for 2025-2026 Quota Outcomes

Given the federal government’s firm position and the current allocation framework, applicants should expect only marginal improvements rather than a return to previous higher quota levels. The best-case scenario appears to be an increase from the proposed 20,350 toward, but not reaching, the previous year’s 26,260 total.

Several factors influence the realistic outcome range:

• Political compromise potential: Small increases to acknowledge state unity
• Economic needs: Specific skill shortage evidence from each state
• Timing constraints: Limited window for program year adjustments
• Precedent concerns: Avoiding expectations for annual renegotiations

For skilled migration applicants, this means:

• Prepare for continued competitive selection processes
• Consider multiple state nomination options
• Ensure eligibility scores exceed minimum requirements
• Monitor official channels for sudden updates

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Strategic Implications for Skilled Migration Applicants

The quota battle underscores the importance of flexible application strategies and understanding each state’s specific nomination priorities and processing timelines. Applicants should diversify their approach rather than relying on a single state’s program, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding final allocations.

Key strategic considerations include:

• Priority occupation alignment: Matching skills with state-specific needs lists
• Processing time variations: Understanding different state administration capacities
• Document preparation: Having complete applications ready for sudden opportunities
• Alternative pathways: Investigating employer sponsorship and independent options

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Historical Context and Future Outlook

The current quota negotiations reflect broader tensions in Australian migration policy between state autonomy and federal coordination, with implications for long-term program structure. This isn’t the first time states have challenged allocation decisions, but the level of coordination among multiple major states is unprecedented.

Looking beyond the immediate quota battle, several trends are emerging:

• Increasing state involvement: States demanding greater input in migration planning
• Economic argument refinement: Better data linking migration to specific development needs
• Regional distribution focus: Continued emphasis on spreading migration benefits
• Program integration: Closer alignment between state nomination and other visa streams

Kirk Yan observes: “The smaller states don’t seem to have expressed much position. We also got news from Canberra yesterday - everything that could be done at the state government level has been done, just waiting for the federal government to make the final decision. The official website could be updated at any time.”

Actionable Steps for Prospective Applicants

Despite the quota uncertainty, proactive applicants can take concrete steps to position themselves favorably regardless of final allocation decisions. Preparation and flexibility remain the most valuable assets in navigating Australia’s skilled migration landscape.

Immediate actions to consider:

1. Document verification: Ensure all supporting documents are current and verifiable
2. Skills assessment: Complete relevant skills assessments for target occupations
3. English testing: Achieve the highest possible English scores for additional points
4. State research: Understand each state’s nomination criteria and priority sectors
5. Professional registration: Obtain any required professional registrations in advance

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The Bottom Line: Modest Improvements Possible

While the unified state pressure creates more favorable conditions for quota increases than in previous years, the federal government’s firm stance suggests only modest improvements are likely. Applicants should hope for movement toward the previous year’s levels while preparing for highly competitive selection processes.

The coming weeks will be critical as the federal government finalizes its decisions. The Department of Home Affairs website could update at any moment, making constant monitoring essential for those awaiting outcomes. As Kirk Yan concludes: “Can we expect better results this year? Even if we can’t maintain 26,260, can we get more than the originally planned 20,350?”

The coordinated state effort represents a significant shift in migration policy dynamics, but whether it translates to tangible quota increases remains uncertain. What’s clear is that skilled migration applicants need every advantage in this competitive environment.

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