[2026 Guide] Australian Skilled Migration Weekly: NSW 491 Rush, NT Processing Times & Perth’s Regional Status

TL;DR: The latest Australian skilled migration data reveals a surge in 189 visa applications causing a backlog exceeding 11,000, while 190 and 491 visas see accelerated processing and reduced inventories. New South Wales’ Subclass 491 Pathways 1 and 3 closed within hours of opening due to overwhelming demand, leaving Pathway 2 as the only ongoing option. Meanwhile, Northern Territory updated its processing timelines, and Perth’s future as a designated regional area is under intense government review.

The Australian skilled migration landscape is shifting rapidly, with critical updates on visa processing, state nomination pathways, and potential policy reforms. This week’s analysis, based on the latest official data and state announcements, provides a clear snapshot of where opportunities lie and what challenges applicants must navigate in early 2026.

Latest Skilled Visa Grant Data: 189 Backlog Soars While 190/491 Processing Accelerates

The backlog for the Subclass 189 Skilled Independent visa has surpassed 11,000 applications, while Subclass 190 and 491 grants continue at a strong pace, reducing their respective queues. Data current to November 2025 shows a complex picture of supply and demand across the three main points-tested streams.

For the Subclass 189, a significant influx of new applications is the primary driver of delays. November saw 2,552 new primary applications lodged. Although over 1,400 grants were issued in the same month, the net effect was an increase in the total backlog to over 11,000 cases. The Department of Home Affairs continues to process these visas in order of receipt, with January 2026 primarily focusing on applications lodged in December 2024 and August 2025.

In contrast, the Subclass 190 State Nominated visa is showing positive signs. While new applications increased by 588 from October to over 1,000 in November, grant numbers remained robust at over 3,000 for the month. This processing efficiency reduced the overall inventory by more than 2,000 applications. Notably, processing has become highly dispersed, with grants issued for applications lodged as far back as June 2023 and as recently as October 2024.

The Subclass 491 Skilled Work Regional visa is also experiencing efficient processing. November grants increased by over 600 from October to reach 2,700+, driving the total backlog down to under 24,000. Processing is not strictly chronological but is concentrated on applications from the 2023-24 financial year.

• Key Takeaway: The 189 pathway is highly congested. State-nominated pathways (190 and 491), while competitive, are where the Department is currently allocating significant processing resources, making them more predictable for eligible candidates.
• Actionable Insight: If you are considering an 189 application, prepare for a potentially long wait. Prioritising a state nomination strategy through a 190 or 491 visa may lead to a faster outcome. Use tools like the Visa Success Predictor to model your chances across different pathways.

NSW Subclass 491: Pathways 1 & 3 Close in Under a Day, Leaving Only Pathway 2 Open

New South Wales was forced to close its direct application pathways for the Subclass 491 visa within hours of opening due to an unprecedented surge in applications. Pathway 1 (for eligible workers) and Pathway 3 (for NSW regional graduates) opened on Monday, January 19, 2026, and were closed by that afternoon after reaching capacity.

This extreme demand underscores the intense competition for NSW nomination. The state has a total of 1,500 spots for the 491 visa this program year, and with roughly half the year gone, only about 330 have been used, indicating these popular direct pathways filled their allocated slots almost instantly. The state government has warned that processing times for these streams may exceed the standard six weeks.

This leaves Pathway 2 as the only currently available route for NSW 491 nomination. This is a pre-invite (EOI-based) stream with no mandatory work experience requirement, open to both onshore and offshore applicants whose occupations are on the NSW 491 list. It is considered a lower priority by the state, which has indicated it may only issue one or two invitation rounds later in the program year, depending on remaining quota. This makes it a viable but uncertain option, particularly for offshore teachers and engineers with competitive points.

• Key Takeaway: The NSW 491 program is exceptionally competitive. The rapid closure of direct pathways means applicants must now rely on the invitation-based Pathway 2 or look to other states for nomination opportunities.
• Actionable Insight: If you are set on NSW, ensure your EOI for Pathway 2 is submitted and accurately reflects your points. Concurrently, research other states with active nomination programs. For a strategic overview of all options, consulting with a service like NovenAI can provide real-time analysis of which states are actively inviting candidates in your occupation.

Tasmania Invites, Northern Territory Updates Processing Times

Tasmania continues its regular weekly invitation rounds, while the Northern Territory has provided updated processing dates for its various nomination streams.

Tasmania’s latest round, held on January 22, 2026, issued 35 invitations for Subclass 190 (lowest score 54) and 25 for Subclass 491 (lowest score 31). The state is primarily inviting candidates through its “Orange” priority pathways. There are currently 449 ROI submissions awaiting invitation for the 190 visa and 198 for the 491.

The Northern Territory has published its latest processing timelines as of late January 2026:

• NT Graduate Stream: Processing applications lodged around November 24, 2025.
• NT Worker Stream: Processing applications lodged around November 25, 2025.
• Offshore Family Stream: Processing applications lodged prior to December 23, 2025.
• Offshore Job Offer Stream: Processing applications lodged prior to January 16, 2026.
• Offshore Priority Occupation Stream: Not yet commenced; expected to start in early 2026.

The NT generally processes applications in order of receipt but will prioritise cases where the applicant has a local job offer, is facing age-related deadline issues, has a visa expiring within 30 days, or risks falling below the 65-point threshold.

Is Perth Being Removed from the Regional Area List? The Policy Debate Explained

The Federal Government is actively reviewing the definition of regional areas, and Perth’s status is a central point of discussion, with a formal decision expected in early 2026. Rumours about Perth’s potential removal from the regional designation have circulated widely, stemming from ongoing broader reforms to regional migration and points test settings.

The debate entered the public sphere in October 2025 when the Premier of Western Australia issued a statement opposing any federal changes that would undermine the state’s ability to attract workers, specifically mentioning the potential removal of Perth’s regional status. This indicates the issue has been under internal government review for some time.

Migration experts in Perth have since indicated that the federal government is expected to receive a comprehensive report on points test and regional reforms in early 2026. The current lobbying effort suggests that draft proposals may be unfavourable to Perth’s regional classification.

If Perth were reclassified as a non-regional area, the consequences would be significant:

• Graduates from Perth institutions would lose access to the 5-point Regional Study bonus in the points test.

• The city would no longer be eligible for the Subclass 494 Skilled Employer Sponsored Regional visa.

• Current holders of Subclass 491 or 494 visas living in Perth would be unable to meet the regional residence requirement to transition to the permanent Subclass 191 visa.

• Key Takeaway: A major policy shift is on the horizon. Applicants who are counting on Perth’s regional status for points or visa eligibility must prepare for potential changes.

• Actionable Insight: Perth-based 485 visa holders should investigate applying for a second post-study work visa now, rather than waiting. All applicants should stay informed on official announcements. To understand exactly how many points you currently have and how a change to regional definitions might affect your total, use a reliable EOI Points Calculator.

Navigating Australian skilled migration requires agility and access to the most current information. This week’s updates highlight the critical importance of having a flexible strategy, as direct pathways can close overnight and foundational policies like regional definitions are subject to change. Success depends on accurate points calculation, understanding state-specific priorities, and preparing for multiple scenarios.

For continuous, AI-powered guidance that tracks these changes in real-time and helps you build a resilient migration plan, explore your options with NovenAI.

Start building your personalised migration strategy today at https://www.novenai.com.