[2026–2027 Guide] Australia’s 190/491 State Nomination Quota Progress: Key Insights & State-by-State Analysis

TL;DR: As of late February 2026, Australia’s state nomination program is at a critical mid-year juncture, with overall 190 and 491 quotas roughly half used. The pace of invitations varies dramatically by state, creating distinct opportunities and challenges for skilled migrants. Victoria’s recent large invitation round and Northern Territory’s opening of offshore 491 pathways are key developments to watch.

The Department of Home Affairs has released its latest data on state nomination quota usage up to the end of February 2026. This mid-program-year snapshot reveals which states are leading the charge, which are lagging, and where strategic opportunities may lie for the remainder of the 2025–2026 migration year. Understanding this landscape is crucial for timing your Expression of Interest (EOI) and aligning your strategy with state-specific priorities.

Overall Quota Progress: A Nationwide Snapshot

Overall, approximately half of the allocated 190 and 491 nomination quotas remain unused nationwide. However, with over half the program year elapsed, states should ideally have utilised 60% or more of their allocations. Only the Northern Territory (for 190 visas) and Queensland and Victoria (for 491 visas) are meeting this benchmark, indicating a slower-than-expected rollout in several jurisdictions.

Activity picked up significantly in February compared to January. States collectively issued 1,667 formal 190 nominations (an increase of over 200) and 1,388 formal 491 nominations (an increase of over 600). Queensland was the most active state for 190 nominations in February, while Western Australia led in 491 nominations. This acceleration suggests states are now moving to allocate their quotas before the end of the financial year.

• Key National Figures (February Activity):
  • 190 Nominations: 1,667 issued (+200+ from January).
  • 491 Nominations: 1,388 issued (+600+ from January).
  • Benchmark: States should have used ~60% of quotas by this point.
  • On Track: Only NT (190), QLD (491), and VIC (491).

To assess how your profile might fare in this competitive environment, using a tool like the NovenAI Visa Success Predictor can provide a data-driven estimate of your chances based on current state priorities and quota usage.

State-by-State Analysis: Where the Opportunities Lie

The national picture masks significant variation. Your strategy must be tailored to the specific dynamics of your target state.

Australian Capital Territory (ACT)

The ACT is progressing steadily but with moderate processing speeds. The territory has around 55% of its quotas remaining. It processed just over 200 Matrix invitations in a recent round (March 12), issuing 123 formal 190 nominations and 149 formal 491 nominations. The ACT’s unique Canberra Business Owner (CBO) pathway also yielded 23 nominations.

• Remaining Quota: ~55% for both 190 and 491.
• Recent Activity: Steady, small-to-medium sized invitation rounds.
• Strategy Note: Consistent scoring and occupation demand are key; the Matrix system is predictable but competitive.

New South Wales (NSW)

NSW demonstrates high efficiency in 190 nominations but limited flexibility on occupations and points. The state has used over 55% of its 190 quota and 46% of its 491 quota. Its 190 invitation schedule and volumes are consistent, and formal nomination processing is efficient. However, the required occupations and points thresholds offer “few surprises,” meaning candidates must meet high, established benchmarks. All pathways for the Skilled Work Regional (subclass 491) visa are currently closed, with attention now on processing speed.

• 190 Usage: >55% (Efficient, predictable).
• 491 Usage: 46% (Pathways currently closed).
• Strategy Note: Focus on maximising your points score for 190 nominations. Tools like the NovenAI EOI Points Calculator are essential for ensuring you claim every point you’re entitled to.

Northern Territory (NT)

The NT is a front-runner in 190 nominations and has opened a critical new pathway for offshore 491 candidates. The territory has used over 60% of its 190 quota, leaving just over 300 nominations, primarily reserved for local applicants. While only 45% of the 491 quota is used, this translates to just 440 spots remaining. Crucially, the NT has begun assessing offshore 491 applications, though competition for these limited spots will be intense.

• 190 Usage: >60% (Leading state).
• 491 Quota Left: ~440 spots (Offshore applications now open).
• Strategy Note: Offshore applicants should urgently explore the NT 491 pathway, but must have a highly competitive profile.

Queensland (QLD)

Queensland needs to significantly increase its nomination rate to utilise its quotas. Despite issuing 340 formal nominations in February, Queensland has the lowest 190 usage rate, with over 65% of its quota still available. Its 491 usage is better but still lagging at over 61% remaining. The state employs a “small batch, high frequency” invitation model for both onshore and offshore candidates, but the scale appears insufficient.

• 190 Usage: <35% (Slowest pace nationally).
• 491 Usage: <39%.
• Strategy Note: Candidates for Queensland should remain patient but prepared, as a surge in invitations may be necessary before June 30.

South Australia (SA)

South Australia is progressing slowly and may need to change its approach. As a “late starter,” SA holds monthly invitation rounds but has used less than half of its 190 quota and only 40% of its 491 quota. To meet its allocation, the state may need to increase either the frequency or the size of its invitation rounds.

• 190 Usage: <50%.
• 491 Usage: 40%.
• Strategy Note: Monitor SA’s rounds closely for any shift in strategy towards larger or more frequent invitations.

Tasmania (TAS)

Tasmania has introduced strict prioritisation for 190s and has a significant backlog. The state recently announced that 190 nominations are temporarily reserved for “Gold Pass” applicants. As of late February, 617 spots remained, but with 380 applications pending as of March 19, the effective remaining quota is roughly 200. The 491 situation is similar, with an estimated 200 spots left after accounting for pending applications. A recent 491 round invited “Green Pass” candidates with scores as low as 301.

• Effective 190 Quota Left: ~200 (Gold Pass priority).
• Effective 491 Quota Left: ~200.
• Strategy Note: The 190 pathway is now highly exclusive in Tasmania. The 491 remains more accessible, but processing delays are a factor.

Victoria (VIC)

Victoria corrected a slow start with a major, diversified invitation round in March. Earlier caution led to 48% of its 190 quota remaining. The March round was substantial, inviting candidates in marketing, auditing, accounting, advertising, and larger numbers in IT and engineering. Following this round, availability is likely limited. The 491 quota is nearly exhausted, with just 164 spots left before March’s round, likely leaving only double-digit numbers remaining.

• 190 Usage: Accelerated significantly in March.
• 491 Quota Left: Very limited (<100).
• Strategy Note: If you were not invited in the large March round, 190 opportunities in Victoria for 2025-2026 are now scarce.

Western Australia (WA)

Western Australia is accelerating processing but remains behind on proportional usage. Contrary to its reputation for slowness, WA processed nearly 300 190 nominations over two months and 400 491s in February alone. However, proportionally, it still lags. Recent rounds have correctly focused on its four priority sectors. The key question is whether future rounds will see continued points drops for priority sectors or open up to non-priority occupations.

• Processing Speed: Increased significantly.
• Strategy Focus: Remains on four priority sectors.
• Strategy Note: Candidates in WA’s priority sectors should have strong prospects, while non-priority applicants await potential policy shifts.

Strategic Outlook for the Remainder of 2026

March saw renewed activity across most states, including new pre-invitation rounds and the NT’s launch of offshore 491 processing. The hope for April is that other states follow Victoria’s lead in issuing larger, more inclusive rounds to utilise their quotas effectively before the program year ends on June 30.

For skilled migrants, this means:

1. Stay Updated: Quota data directly influences invitation probability. States with large remaining quotas (like QLD for 190s) may become more active.
2. Optimise Your Profile: Ensure your EOI is accurate, your skills assessments are current, and your English language scores are maximised. If you’re unsure about your English test strategy, reviewing a comprehensive English Level Guide can help you plan effectively.
3. Be Flexible: Consider multiple state options, especially for the 491 visa, as pathways in NT and TAS still have capacity.
4. Use Data-Driven Tools: Navigating this complex and shifting landscape requires more than just static information. While traditional agents can help, a modern solution like NovenAI provides 24/7 access to an AI migration mentor trained on the latest policy data, offering real-time strategy adjustments, document guidance, and instant alerts on crucial changes like quota updates or invitation rounds—ensuring you’re always basing your decisions on the most current information available.

The final quarter of the 2025–2026 state nomination program is set to be highly active. By understanding each state’s unique position and preparing a precise, responsive application strategy, you can position yourself to receive a coveted nomination.

Ready to build a winning state nomination strategy tailored to the latest quota data? Visit NovenAI today to explore our free assessment tools and discover how our AI migration mentor can guide you to success.